Global financial giant JPMorgan Chase has released a new market outlook predicting that gold prices could climb to $6,300 per ounce by the end of 2026.
If this forecast materializes, it would mark a historic surge in gold prices and significantly impact international and local bullion markets — including Pakistan.
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According to the report, two key factors are driving the bullish outlook:
1️⃣ Strong Central Bank Buying
Central banks around the world are increasingly:
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Diversifying foreign exchange reserves
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Reducing reliance on paper assets
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Increasing allocation to physical gold
JPMorgan estimates that global central bank gold purchases could reach around 800 tons in 2026.
This sustained demand can create upward pressure on international prices.
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Investors are turning toward gold as a:
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Safe-haven asset
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Hedge against inflation
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Protection during geopolitical uncertainty
Whenever global economic risks rise, gold demand typically strengthens.
What About Silver?
JPMorgan has taken a more cautious view on silver.
The report notes that:
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Silver previously touched $122 per ounce
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It has now declined to around $76 per ounce
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Expected trading range: $75 to $80 per ounce
Unlike gold, silver does not benefit from strong and consistent central bank buying support. As a result, its price outlook remains more stable rather than sharply bullish.
What This Means for Pakistan
Gold prices in Pakistan are directly linked to:
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International gold rates
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Dollar exchange rate
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Local demand and supply
If global prices rise toward $6,300 per ounce:
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Local gold rates per tola could surge significantly
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Jewelry prices may increase
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Investment demand could rise
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Wedding season buyers may face higher costs
Similarly, fluctuations in silver prices also affect local bullion traders.
Is $6,300 Realistic?
While the forecast is ambitious, such projections depend on:
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Global inflation trends
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Interest rate policies
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US dollar strength
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Geopolitical tensions
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Central bank accumulation levels
Forecasts are not guarantees — they reflect potential scenarios based on current trends.
Should Investors Be Concerned?
For Pakistani investors:
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Gold is traditionally considered a safe investment
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Many households prefer physical gold over financial instruments
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Rising prices benefit existing holders but challenge new buyers
Anyone considering investment should carefully evaluate:
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Market volatility
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Exchange rate movement
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Long-term economic outlook
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